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Library · Traffic · How to run this

Open refunds fake the MER

How to run thisTraffic3 steps
CalculatorLag-adjusted MER · Calculator lives in the articleOpen

Attribution dashboards show booked revenue while refunds are still open. MER looks fat. Then credits post and last week’s 3.2× was a loan. Lag MER subtracts the refund dollars still inside your window from booked revenue, then divides by the same ad spend. We invent no refund rate.

Pair: Lag-adjusted MER on Traffic. Bid cap from contribution: min ROAS. Refund clocks: refund window.

What you type

Ad spend $ for the window you are reading (same days as the revenue).

Booked revenue $ the dashboard still treats as sold — before those open credits.

Open refund $ still inside the refund / RDR / alert window that will hit this cohort. Type the dollars, not a hope %.

Raw MER = booked ÷ spend. Lag MER = (booked − open refunds) ÷ spend. The gap is refund drag. Bid and kill on lag MER.

If open refunds are not in a report, pull processor refunds-pending plus helpdesk tickets you will credit. Blank is a lie, not zero, unless you truly have none.

What not to do

Do not paste a “category refund rate.” Do not bid on Triple Whale / Northbeam booked MER while the refund window is still open. Do not mix ad-account purchase revenue with processor refunds from another week. Do not treat store credit as a card refund unless it actually reversed the sale you counted.

Related: Traffic, min ROAS, max CAC, refund window, Refunds.

Procedure

  1. Type spend and booked revenue for the same window.
  2. Type open refund dollars still inside the window.
  3. Read lag MER. Bid and kill on that, not raw booked MER.

Failure modes

  • Pasting a typical refund rate.
  • Bidding on booked dashboard MER while refunds are still open.
  • Mixing ad-account purchase revenue with another week’s processor refunds.

Worked example

None on this page yet. When one lands it will be a real case: what broke, the number, and what changed. Not a composite.

Glossary

Lag MER
(Booked revenue − open refund dollars still in the window) ÷ ad spend. Booked MER treats those credits as sold.

Work with us — We run this job on your accounts. Services

FAQ

Is this min ROAS from contribution?
No. [Min ROAS](/manuals/roas-target) is a bid cap from settled AOV and contribution. This page adjusts MER for refunds that have not posted yet.
What refund % should I assume?
None. Type open refund dollars still inside the window. A blended “typical refund rate” is how you invent lag.
Is platform ROAS the same as MER?
Related shape (revenue ÷ spend). Platform ROAS often uses billed ads revenue. Type the books you actually bid from.