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Price a save offer against leftover LTV

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CalculatorCancel-save offer calculator · Calculator lives in the articleOpen

A save offer that costs more than the cash you expect to keep is not retention. It is a tip. Price the discount against leftover cash LTV and a measured save rate. Leftover is cash still to collect — not remaining billed cycles. Capture the cancel reason first. Fraud, never-shipped, hard-fail MIT, and blank reason never get a discount. Negative EV → thank you and cancel.

Pair: Cancel-save offer calculator on Subscriptions.

How to read it

Type leftover cash LTV if they stay, the offer cost, and a measured save rate for this reason. Positive EV → offer once. Negative EV → thank you and cancel. Do not stack three offers on one call. Offer only when EV is non-negative and the MIT path still works. Account updater and dunning are different jobs when the card is the problem — see what updater does not fix.

What not to do

Do not price before the reason. Do not paste a case-study save rate. Do not discount a token that already hard-fails. Do not save a chargeback path.

Related: Subscriptions, cancel reason before save, subscription CAC from surviving cycles.

Procedure

  1. Take leftover cash LTV from surviving cycles.
  2. Put offer cost and a measured save rate.
  3. If EV is negative, say thank you and cancel.

Failure modes

  • Discounting below leftover contribution.
  • Save rate from a vendor case study.
  • Offering a save while MIT is already failing.

Worked example

None on this page yet. When one lands it will be a real case: what broke, the number, and what changed. Not a composite.

Glossary

Leftover LTV
Cash still to collect if the subscriber stays. Not remaining billed cycles.

Work with us — We run this job on your accounts. Services

FAQ

Is leftover LTV the remaining billed cycles?
No. It is cash still to collect if they stay — contribution from surviving cycles, not the sticker total.
Can I use a vendor case-study save rate?
No. Use a measured rate on this cancel reason — or do not offer.
Should I price before I ask why they cancel?
No. Run [cancel reason before save](/manuals/cancel-reason-before-save) first.
The card is already failing MIT. Offer a save?
No. Fix the card path or cancel. A discount does not fix NSF.